Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Nashville Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professort at Wright State and author ofthe report, said unemploymentt increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirf quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitah Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preblw counties, is projected to lose 6,00p0 to 7,000 jobs in the third quarter. That wouldc drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the firsrt quarter of the year, a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has longrelies on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employment in the sectord fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quarter of this year to 36,10 by the third quarter, a nearly 15 percent drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employmenrt are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100p by the third quarter, down from 40,00o in the first quarter, a 2 percent Service employment, which includees financial service, business utilities and leisure service, is projected to decrease to 324,20 0 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the first quarter, a nearly 1 percent decline.
“The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasantf time forthe region,” Traynor said. Constructiohn employment is expected to rise as a part of seasonal to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time periods last year. One area of employment that isn’r expected to be hit hard is healtu care. In fact, Traynofr said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethirrd quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,30o0 in the first quarter.
He said the rate of decline in groszs domestic productwill slow, but remain negative through the thired quarter and maybe into the fourth quarter of this Even when GDP does becomse positive again, it will take some time for employment to pick up becauswe it is a lagging indicator of economic recovery. Traynod said there is a great deal of uncertainty still on the national level, as businesses try to determine the impactt of government actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemploymentr is not going awayanytimed soon.
“This is somethinvg we’re going to be living with for quite a well intonext year,” he